{"id":8525,"date":"2025-12-01T15:23:08","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T14:23:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/?p=8525"},"modified":"2025-12-01T15:23:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T14:23:12","slug":"neudrzatelny-pokrok-a-limity-rastu-vytvorime-utopiu-alebo-dystopiu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/index.php\/2025\/12\/01\/neudrzatelny-pokrok-a-limity-rastu-vytvorime-utopiu-alebo-dystopiu\/","title":{"rendered":"Neudr\u017eate\u013en\u00fd pokrok a limity rastu – vytvor\u00edme ut\u00f3piu alebo dyst\u00f3piu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n


UPOZORNENIE \u2013 D\u00d4LE\u017dIT\u00c9 INFORM\u00c1CIE<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cie\u013eom tohto \u010dl\u00e1nku je pribl\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 \u010ditate\u013eovi zmenu glob\u00e1lnych tendenci\u00ed v\u00fdvoja \u013eudskej civiliz\u00e1cie. Existuj\u00fa matematick\u00e9 modely, ktor\u00e9 predpovedali tzv. matematick\u00fa singularitu v\u00fdvoja \u013eudskej civiliz\u00e1cie medzi rokmi 2026-2029, kedy pod\u013ea star\u0161\u00edch trendov malo \u013eudstvo dosahova\u0165 nekone\u010dn\u00e9 hodnoty vo viacer\u00fdch oblastiach. V tomto \u010dase mnoh\u00ed o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa vytvorenie skuto\u010dnej umelej inteligencie.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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DEMOGRAFIA: MATEMATICK\u00dd KONIEC SVETA 13.11. 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V roku 1960 bola vytvoren\u00e1 predikcia v\u00fdvoja \u013eudskej popul\u00e1cie na z\u00e1klade vtedaj\u0161\u00edch demografick\u00fdch trendov, kedy sa pri\u0161lo na to, \u017ee popul\u00e1cia rastie po hyperbolickej krivke<\/strong>, a ak by sa trend nezmenil, tak by \u013eudstvo dosiahlo nekone\u010dn\u00fd rozmer popul\u00e1cie na konci bud\u00faceho roku, kedy by bola pod\u013ea modelu dosiahnut\u00e1 tzv. singularita (funkcia prest\u00e1va by\u0165 rie\u0161ite\u013en\u00e1, dosahuje nekone\u010dnos\u0165). Tento model vytvoril H. von Foerster v spolupr\u00e1ci s P.M. Morou a L.W. Amiotom, ktor\u00fd bol publikovan\u00fd v \u010dl\u00e1nku \u010dasopisu Science so symbolick\u00fdm n\u00e1zvom Koniec sveta: Piatok 13. novembra 2026 n.l.<\/a> Tento \u010dl\u00e1nok vyvolal senz\u00e1ciu, v 20. storo\u010d\u00ed sa svetov\u00e1 popul\u00e1cia pribli\u017ene \u0161tvorn\u00e1sobne zv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ila, no trendy sa za\u010dali o nieko\u013eko rokov po publik\u00e1cii \u010dl\u00e1nku meni\u0165 a tempo rastu \u013eudskej popul\u00e1cie sa za\u010dalo postupne spomalova\u0165.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Obr. \u010d.1: Korel\u00e1cia medzi empirick\u00fdmi odhadmi svetovej popul\u00e1cie (\u010dierna, v mili\u00f3noch \u013eud\u00ed, 1000 \u2013 1970) a krivkou vytvorenou rovnicou von Foerstera et al. (siv\u00e1) (zdroj: <\/em>Grinin et al, 2015<\/em><\/a>)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Svetov\u00e1 popula\u010dn\u00e1 expl\u00f3zia bola sp\u00f4soben\u00e1 okrem in\u00e9ho aj v\u010faka pokroku v medic\u00edne, \u010d\u00edm sa zn\u00ed\u017eila detsk\u00e1 \u00famrtnos\u0165 a zv\u00fd\u0161il priemern\u00fd vek do\u017eitia jednotlivcov. Av\u0161ak nesk\u00f4r sa p\u00f4rodnos\u0165 \u013eud\u00ed za\u010dala zni\u017eova\u0165, za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00fac od najrozvinutej\u0161\u00edch kraj\u00edn. Najlep\u0161ie a najdlh\u0161ie s\u00fa modern\u00e9 demografick\u00e9 trendy pozorovate\u013en\u00e9 v Japonsku, kde menej ako tretina obyvate\u013estva je vo veku 65+ rokov a p\u00f4rodnos\u0165 je v krajine tak\u00e1 n\u00edzka, \u017ee celkov\u00fd po\u010det obyvate\u013eov kles\u00e1. Demografick\u00fd prechod od tzv. expl\u00f3zie rastu k poklesu je badate\u013en\u00fd u\u017e vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch krajin\u00e1ch, najmenej v\u0161ak v krajin\u00e1ch subsaharskej Afriky, kde sa aktu\u00e1lne rap\u00eddne zni\u017euje detsk\u00e1 \u00famrtnos\u0165 a zvy\u0161uje priemern\u00fd vek, no celkov\u00e1 p\u00f4rodnos\u0165 na kontinente e\u0161te nedosiahla \u00farovne najrozvinutej\u0161\u00edch kraj\u00edn. Afrika bude v najbli\u017e\u0161ich desa\u0165ro\u010diach najviac prispieva\u0165 k rastu svetovej popul\u00e1cie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

V roku 1992 publikoval<\/a> fyzik S. Kapica, syn laure\u00e1ta Nobelovej ceny za fyziku P. Kapicu, model dokazuj\u00faci, \u017ee svetov\u00e1 popul\u00e1cia sa vyv\u00edja po krivke podobnej arktangensovej funkcii, kedy sa popul\u00e1cia zastav\u00ed v 21. storo\u010d\u00ed zhruba na \u00farovni 11 mili\u00e1rd obyvate\u013eov. Matematici A. Akaev a V. Sadovni\u010dij v roku 2010 publikovali model<\/a>, ktor\u00fd berie do \u00favahy \u013eudsk\u00fd vplyv na plan\u00e9tu a jej limity. Ich dva scen\u00e1re s\u00fa predstaven\u00e9 spolu s Kapicovou krivkou na grafe obr\u00e1zku \u010d. 2. Jeden scen\u00e1r (zelen\u00e1 krivka) je bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed modelu \u010d\u00ednskeho demografick\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja, kedy sa p\u00f4rodnos\u0165 kontrolovate\u013ene zn\u00ed\u017eila a druh\u00fd (\u010derven\u00e1) je bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed indick\u00e9mu modelu, kedy popul\u00e1cia napriek zn\u00ed\u017eenej p\u00f4rodnosti rastie po inercii, kedy m\u00f4\u017ee potenci\u00e1lne nasta\u0165 kolaps spolo\u010dnosti kv\u00f4li nedostatku zdrojov na pokrytie potrieb celej popul\u00e1cie. <\/p>\n\n\n

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Obr. \u010d. 2: Model Akaeva a Sadovni\u010dieho – scen\u00e1r 1 (\u010derven\u00e1), scen\u00e1r 2 (zelen\u00e1), skuto\u010dn\u00e9 d\u00e1ta (modr\u00e9 kruhy), Kapicova krivka (\u010dierna) (zdroj: <\/em>Akaev, 2022<\/em><\/a>)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Pod\u013ea Akaeva a Sadovni\u010dieho a pr\u00e1c, o ktor\u00e9 sa opieraj\u00fa, je optim\u00e1lna popul\u00e1cia pre plan\u00e9tu 5,2 miliardy, k \u010domu by sme pod\u013ea ich modelu mali smerova\u0165 po dosiahnut\u00ed zhruba 9 mili\u00e1rd obyvate\u013eov v polovici 21. storo\u010dia. Obaja matematici sa opieraj\u00fa vo svojich v\u00fdskumoch aj o pr\u00e1ce \u013eud\u00ed z R\u00edmskeho klubu, teda aj o model World3 vytvoren\u00fd D. Meadowsom a jeho t\u00edmom publikovanom v zn\u00e1mom reporte R\u00edmskemu klubu – Limity rastu<\/a> v roku 1972, o ktorom sme p\u00edsali v na\u0161om \u010dl\u00e1nku TU<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SPOMALENIE RASTU<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S rastom popul\u00e1cie je spojen\u00fd aj ekonomick\u00fd a technologick\u00fd rast. Zjednodu\u0161ene povedan\u00e9 – \u010d\u00edm v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ia je popul\u00e1cia, t\u00fdm bude viac vedcov za predpokladu, \u017ee vo vede pracuje ur\u010dit\u00e1 neve\u013ek\u00e1 \u010das\u0165 (percento) celkovej popul\u00e1cie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pod\u013ea viacer\u00fdch odhadov nie sme \u010faleko od vytvorenia prvej kybernetikmi predpovedanej AGI (artificial general intelligence – v\u0161eobecn\u00e1 umel\u00e1 inteligencia) u\u017e od 50. rokov 20. storo\u010dia, ktor\u00e1 by dok\u00e1zala rie\u0161i\u0165 \u00falohy vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch oblastiach na \u00farovni \u0161pecialistu s \u013eudskou inteligenciou. \u013dudia ako E. Musk, R. Kurzweil alebo \u0161\u00e9f OpenAI S. Altman predpovedali mo\u017enos\u0165 vytvorenia AGI u\u017e medzi rokmi 2027 a 2029, \u010do je ove\u013ea optimistickej\u0161\u00ed predpoklad, ako pred 5-10 rokmi a tento predpoklad sa zhoduje s matematick\u00fdmi modelmi. V s\u00fa\u010dasnosti u\u017e funguje americk\u00fd projekt Stargate, ktor\u00fd vytv\u00e1ra v USA infra\u0161trukt\u00faru a prostredie pre bud\u00facu AGI. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zn\u00e1my po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00fd vedec a futurista R. Kurzweil spopularizoval my\u0161lienku singularity \u013eudsk\u00e9ho (vesm\u00edrneho v\u00fdvoja), kedy zostavil graf najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch m\u00ed\u013enikov v biologickom a nesk\u00f4r vedecko-technickom v\u00fdvoji v grafe \u010d.3, kde na osi x je \u010das do dosiahnutia singularity a os y je \u010dasov\u00fd rozdiel medzi jednotliv\u00fdmi m\u00ed\u013enikmi, \u010d\u00edm pop\u00edsal aj makroevolu\u010dn\u00fa krivku vesm\u00edru v spojitosti s biologick\u00fdm a vedecko-technick\u00fdm pokrokom. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kurzweilova krivka je invertovan\u00e1 hyperbola podobn\u00e1 krivke von Foerstera predstaven\u00e1 na obr\u00e1zku \u010d. 1. Priekopn\u00edk v \u0161t\u00fadiu tzv. Big History a glob\u00e1lnych megatrendov pomocou matematick\u00e9ho modelovania A. Korotaev vypo\u010d\u00edtal<\/a> s pou\u017eit\u00edm re\u00e1lnych historick\u00fdch bodov krivky Kurzweila v \u010dase, \u017ee singularita krivky pripad\u00e1 na rok 2029. V takom pr\u00edpade by \u010dasov\u00fd rozdiel medzi nov\u00fdmi makrohistorick\u00fdmi m\u00ed\u013enikmi bol nulov\u00fd, resp. vedecko-technologick\u00fd pokrok by nabral nekone\u010dn\u00fa r\u00fdchlos\u0165, \u010do v praxi nie je mo\u017en\u00e9, preto sa predpoklad\u00e1 podobn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj tomu demografick\u00e9mu predstaven\u00e9mu v predo\u0161lej \u010dasti \u010dl\u00e1nku. Korotaev preto t\u00fato singularitu definuje ako bod po prejden\u00ed ktor\u00e9ho sa bude tempo glob\u00e1lnej evol\u00facie systematicky v dlhodobej perspekt\u00edve spoma\u013eova\u0165.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Obr. \u010d. 3: Kurzweilov \u010das do singularity (zdroj: <\/em>Kurzweil, 2005<\/em><\/a>)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

CIVILIZA\u010cN\u00c1 ZMENA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch rokoch prejdeme teda viacer\u00fdmi singularitami: demografickou, vedecko-technickou a makroevolu\u010dnou, ktor\u00e9 sa s prekvapivou presnos\u0165ou, s oh\u013eadom na tis\u00edcero\u010dn\u00e9 obdobia, zhoduj\u00fa s minim\u00e1lnou odch\u00fdlkou so s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdmi optimistick\u00fdmi odhadmi vytvorenia AGI. A. Akaev opisuje<\/a> obdobie po singularite matematick\u00fdm pojmom bifurka\u010dn\u00e9 obdobie (cca 2025-2050), kedy nastane v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 zmena v trendoch, kedy s\u00fa mo\u017en\u00e9 dva hlavn\u00e9 scen\u00e1re z poh\u013eadu \u013eudstva a implement\u00e1cie AGI. S\u00fa mo\u017en\u00e9 2 hlavn\u00e9 scen\u00e1re v\u00fdvoja v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch desa\u0165ro\u010diach – \u013eudstvo sa bu\u010f dostane do symbi\u00f3zy s AGI, kedy by \u013eudia AGI kontrolovali, alebo \u013eudstvo bude pod kontrolou AGI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V s\u00fa\u010dasnosti je svetov\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd syst\u00e9m na prahu limitu svojho rastu. Re\u00e1lna ekonomika rozvinut\u00fdch kraj\u00edn sa od sedemdesiatych-osemdesiatych rokov do ve\u013ekej miery umelo nafukuje, kedy stredn\u00e1 trieda re\u00e1lne chudobnie a rozdiely medzi najbohat\u0161\u00edmi a najchudobnej\u0161\u00edmi s\u00fa v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie ako v 19. storo\u010d\u00ed, \u010do pop\u00edsal Piketty vo svojom diele Kapit\u00e1l v 21. storo\u010d\u00ed u\u017e v roku 2014. O \u00fapadku strednej triedy sme p\u00edsali TU<\/a>, rovnako ako aj o tom, \u017ee stredn\u00e1 trieda (obyvate\u013estvo so \u017eivotn\u00fdm \u0161t\u00fdlom z\u00e1padnej strednej triedy) sa rozrast\u00e1 v rozv\u00edjaj\u00facich sa krajin\u00e1ch, ktor\u00e9 svojou ekonomickou \u00farov\u0148ou dobiehaj\u00fa Z\u00e1pad. Zmier\u0148uj\u00face sa rozdiely medzi glob\u00e1lnym severom a juhom sp\u00f4sobuj\u00fa aj s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 geopoliticky mimoriadne nap\u00e4t\u00e9 obdobie, kedy nov\u00e9 mocnosti a\u0161piruj\u00fa na l\u00edderstvo v novom svetovom poriadku formuj\u00faceho sa z monocentrick\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho modelu od konca studenej vojny na polycentrick\u00fd svet s viacer\u00fdmi ved\u00facimi civiliz\u00e1ciami, podobne ako to op\u00edsal S. Huntington vo svojom zn\u00e1mom diele Stret civiliz\u00e1ci\u00ed v roku 1996. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pod\u013ea progn\u00f3z na z\u00e1klade cyklov Kondratieva, o ktor\u00fdch sme p\u00edsali TU<\/a>, bolo predpovedan\u00e9 s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 nap\u00e4t\u00e9 obdobie v 20. rokoch 21. storo\u010dia, o ktorom sme p\u00edsali TU<\/a>.<\/a> V \u010dase ve\u013ek\u00e9ho geopolitick\u00e9ho stretu a nap\u00e4tia doch\u00e1dza teda k prechodu na nov\u00fd trend v\u00fdvoja \u013eudskej civiliz\u00e1cie, kedy prech\u00e1dzame do stagn\u00e1cie. Toto sa prejavuje najm\u00e4 v ekonomickej situ\u00e1cii na Z\u00e1pade, v prechode do podobnej situ\u00e1cie v nov\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch mocnostiach ako \u010c\u00edna a mo\u017eno u\u017e v priebehu desa\u0165ro\u010dia po celom svete. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Globaliz\u00e1cia, hoci mnoh\u00ed tvrdia, \u017ee ako ur\u010dit\u00fd projekt skon\u010dila, je v skuto\u010dnosti v celkovej podstate objekt\u00edvny proces, ako to op\u00edsal filozof a teoretik v oblasti globalistiky A. \u010cumakov: \u201eGlobaliz\u00e1cia je objekt\u00edvno-historick\u00fd proces formovania (a fungovania) planet\u00e1rnych \u0161trukt\u00far, spojen\u00ed a vz\u0165ahov v r\u00f4znych sf\u00e9rach spolo\u010densk\u00e9ho \u017eivota.\u201d Globaliz\u00e1cia pokra\u010duje in\u00fdm sp\u00f4sobom ako doteraz, proces premie\u0161avania a spl\u00fdvania kult\u00far sa spomalil, no prepojenia kraj\u00edn vo viacer\u00fdch aspektoch st\u00e1le silnej\u00fa. Geografick\u00fd aspekt globaliz\u00e1cie, teda mo\u017enos\u0165 dosta\u0165 sa z hocijak\u00e9ho miesta A na zemi do hocijak\u00e9ho miesta B, bol ukon\u010den\u00fd u\u017e v 20. storo\u010d\u00ed, vi\u010f obr\u00e1zok \u010d\u00edslo 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Teda nast\u00e1va historicky ve\u013emi unik\u00e1tne obdobie zmeny, kedy sa \u013eudstvo pribli\u017euje na vrchol informa\u010dnej globaliz\u00e1cie, kon\u010d\u00ed sa \u00e9ra glob\u00e1lneho kapitalizmu, dosahujeme limity r\u00fdchlosti vedecko-technick\u00e9ho rastu, no z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u010del\u00edme riziku samozni\u010denia potenci\u00e1lnou svetovou vojnou a ekologickou katastrofou.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Obr. \u010d. 5: Dynamika viacer\u00fdch aspektov globaliz\u00e1cie – vlastn\u00fd preklad z origin\u00e1lu (zdroj: <\/em>\u010cumakov, 2016<\/em><\/a>)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Podobn\u00e9 obdobie z h\u013eadiska viacer\u00fdch trendov nastalo pred zhruba 2000 rokmi, kedy vtedaj\u0161ie civiliz\u00e1cie, najlep\u0161ie historicky pre\u0161tudovan\u00e1 – R\u00edmska r\u00ed\u0161a dosiahla limity svojho rozmachu a pre\u0161la do obdobia stagn\u00e1cie, rovnako nastala aj klimatick\u00e1 zmena, kedy na viac ako 1000 rokov ochladla zem, \u010do sp\u00f4sobilo aj n\u00e1tlak na R\u00edmsku r\u00ed\u0161u pres\u00favaj\u00facich sa n\u00e1rodov zo severu. Dynamiku dlhodob\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja \u013eudskej civiliz\u00e1cie dobre zobrazuj\u00fa trendy meniacej sa mestskej popul\u00e1cie plan\u00e9ty, \u010do je zobrazen\u00e9 na obr\u00e1zku \u010d. 6, kde je na osi x \u010dasov\u00fd \u00fasek od 4000 p.n.l. po 2000 n.l. a na osi y je po\u010det obyvate\u013eov miest v mili\u00f3noch na logaritmickej \u0161k\u00e1le.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pod\u013ea zmien trendov sa menilo aj spolo\u010densk\u00e9 myslenie, ktor\u00e9 pop\u00edsal S. Malkov na jednotliv\u00fdch historick\u00fdch obdobiach. Ke\u010f bolo dostatok zdrojov, najm\u00e4 v\u010faka technologick\u00e9mu pokroku, tak spolo\u010dnos\u0165 r\u00e1stla, no prestalo prevl\u00e1da\u0165 kolekt\u00edvne myslenie a zm\u00fd\u0161\u013ean\u00edm sa pre\u0161lo sk\u00f4r k individualizmu v a formovali sa tzv. spolo\u010dnosti Y a pri nedostatku zdrojov a stagn\u00e1cii bolo pre civiliz\u00e1ciu nutn\u00e9 kolekt\u00edvne myslenie, ktor\u00e9 je typick\u00e9 pre spolo\u010dnos\u0165 X. R\u00edm za\u010dal svoj rozmach po tzv. axi\u00e1lnej dobe, ktor\u00fa pop\u00edsal K. Jaspers v roku 1949<\/a>. Po\u010das axi\u00e1lnej doby po celom svete doch\u00e1dzalo k vzniku a rozmachu nov\u00fdch duchovn\u00fdch a filozofick\u00fdch myslen\u00ed od gr\u00e9ckych filozofick\u00fdch \u0161k\u00f4l po  vznik Budhizmu, Taoizmu a Konfucianizmu v \u00c1zii. Teda zhruba od prelomu 3-4. storo\u010dia sa za\u010dal r\u00edmsky rozmach a bli\u017e\u0161ie k n\u00e1\u0161mu letopo\u010dtu dosiahol svoje limity, kedy u\u017e dovtedy vysokodisciplinovan\u00e1 a cie\u013eavedom\u00e1 r\u00edmska spolo\u010dnos\u0165 za\u010dala proces mor\u00e1lneho \u00fapadku, a tie\u017e vl\u00e1du republikov\u00e9ho sen\u00e1tu nahradil cis\u00e1r. Pri dosiahnut\u00ed limitov rastu elity prestali pracova\u0165 na blaho spolo\u010dnosti, ke\u010f\u017ee u\u017e spolo\u010dnos\u0165 nemohla \u010falej r\u00e1s\u0165, tak sa starali najm\u00e4 o vlastn\u00e9 obohacovanie pri stagnuj\u00facom mno\u017estve zdrojov a to rozkladalo spolo\u010dnos\u0165 aj fyzicky.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Obr. \u010d.6: Te\u00f3ria spolo\u010dnost\u00ed X, Y v \u010dase na krivke po\u010dtu mestsk\u00e9ho obyvate\u013estva plan\u00e9ty (zdroj: <\/em>Sadovni\u010dij et al., 2023<\/em><\/a>)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

V tom \u010dase vznik\u00e1 kres\u0165anstvo, ktor\u00e9 bolo z ideologick\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska prvou kolekt\u00edvnou kozmopolitnou filozofiou, ktor\u00e1 stavala v\u0161etk\u00fdch \u013eud\u00ed a v\u0161etky n\u00e1rody na rovnak\u00fa \u00farove\u0148. Dovtedy sa toti\u017e v Stredomor\u00ed \u013eudia delili na ob\u010danov R\u00edma a ostatn\u00fdch. Mno\u017estvo barbarov sa chcelo dosta\u0165 do R\u00edma a sta\u0165 jeho ob\u010danmi. Ke\u010f sa rozmohlo kres\u0165anstvo, tak v stredoveku sa \u013eudia delili na kres\u0165anov a pohanov a\u017e po koniec stredoveku, kedy sa za\u010dn\u00fa dia\u0165 ve\u013ek\u00e9 zmeny. V 15. storo\u010d\u00ed u\u017e nebola tzv. stredovek\u00e1 mal\u00e1 doba \u013eadov\u00e1, Kon\u0161tant\u00ednopol padol (1453) pod tlakom moslimsk\u00fdch Turkov a za\u010dali sa ve\u013ek\u00e9 geografick\u00e9 objavy (Amerika 1492). V tomto \u010dase (tzv. renesancie) sa rodila nov\u00e1 veda, expanzia a kapitalizmus, \u010do viedlo k postupn\u00e9mu oslabeniu kres\u0165ansk\u00fdch hodn\u00f4t, od R\u00edma sa oddelovali nov\u00e9 denomin\u00e1cie a po Tridsa\u0165ro\u010dnej vojne (1618-1638), kedy u\u017e nebojovali medzi sebou Katol\u00edci s Protestantmi ale n\u00e1rody, vznikol tzv. Vestf\u00e1lsky syst\u00e9m medzin\u00e1rodn\u00fdch vz\u0165ahov, vtedy sa \u013eudia za\u010dali postupne deli\u0165 pod\u013ea n\u00e1rodnost\u00ed a nie n\u00e1bo\u017eenskej (denomina\u010dnej) pr\u00edslu\u0161nosti. V 19. storo\u010d\u00ed sa op\u00e4\u0165 roz\u0161\u00edrili kozmopolitn\u00e9 ale ateistick\u00e9 my\u0161lienky najm\u00e4 u socialistickej internacion\u00e1ly, ktor\u00e9 sa nedok\u00e1zali glob\u00e1lne realizova\u0165.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u010cO O\u010cAK\u00c1VA\u0164<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dnes rovnako ako pred 2000 rokmi dosahujeme limity n\u00e1\u0161ho v\u00fdvoja a vedecko-technick\u00fd pokrok prest\u00e1va by\u0165 udr\u017eate\u013en\u00fd pre \u013eudsk\u00fa civiliz\u00e1ciu, jeho r\u00fdchlos\u0165 za\u010d\u00edna sp\u00f4sobova\u0165 viac probl\u00e9mov ako \u00fa\u017eitku. V\u00fdvoj umelej inteligencie je neskuto\u010dne r\u00fdchly a my ho nedok\u00e1\u017eeme nijako spomali\u0165, napriek tomu, \u017ee samotn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj\u00e1ri umelej inteligencie upozor\u0148uj\u00fa<\/a> na jej vysok\u00e9 riziko a vyz\u00fdvaj\u00fa na spomalenie jej v\u00fdvoja. V\u00fdvoj nevieme zastavi\u0165 z obavy straty konkurencieschopnosti \u010di u\u017e v z\u00e1vode medzi krajinami alebo s\u00fakromn\u00fdmi spolo\u010dnos\u0165ami. Laure\u00e1t Nobelobej ceny a priekopn\u00edk v oblasti neurosiet\u00ed G. Hinton tvrd\u00ed<\/a>, \u017ee v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti je ve\u013emi zlo\u017eit\u00e9 umel\u00fa inteligenciu vytvori\u0165 tak, aby sme zamedzili riziku jej obr\u00e1tenia proti n\u00e1m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u013dudstvo m\u00e1 mo\u017enos\u0165 vytvori\u0165 \u201cdokonal\u00fd svet\u201d, kedy by ka\u017ed\u00fd mal dostatok v\u0161etk\u00e9ho, \u010do pre pohodln\u00fd bezpe\u010dn\u00fd \u017eivot potrebuje a mohol by plne realizova\u0165 svoj potenci\u00e1l. Namiesto toho v\u0161ak smerujeme do techno-dyst\u00f3pie, nako\u013eko sme si vytvorili mno\u017estvo probl\u00e9mov, ktor\u00e9 nevieme prakticky a v potrebnom \u010dase rie\u0161i\u0165, nako\u013eko zv\u00e4\u010d\u0161uj\u00faci sa zlo\u017eit\u00fd syst\u00e9m mechanizmov a regul\u00e1cii za\u010d\u00edna vy\u017eadova\u0165 pr\u00e1cu umelej inteligencie, ktor\u00e1 s ve\u013ek\u00fdmi d\u00e1tami dok\u00e1\u017ee pracova\u0165 ve\u013emi r\u00fdchlo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Podobne ako kolekt\u00edvna filozofia kres\u0165anstva dok\u00e1zala zachr\u00e1ni\u0165 eur\u00f3psku civiliz\u00e1ciu pred tot\u00e1lnym kolapsom po rozpade z\u00e1padn\u00e9ho R\u00edma a dok\u00e1zalo ju nesk\u00f4r pozdvihn\u00fa\u0165, tak dnes je potrebn\u00fd podobn\u00fd my\u0161lienkov\u00fd obrat. Pr\u00ed\u010dinou v\u0161etk\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov \u013eudstva je toti\u017e \u013eudsk\u00e9 zm\u00fd\u0161\u013eanie, ktor\u00e9 sa bude musie\u0165 zmeni\u0165, aby sme vkro\u010dili miesto dyst\u00f3pie do ut\u00f3pie a nespoliehali sa, \u017ee v\u0161etky na\u0161e probl\u00e9my vyrie\u0161i AGI, ako n\u00e1m to falo\u0161ne s\u013eubuje narat\u00edv techno-utopistov. \u010c\u00edm v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed je vedecko-technick\u00fd pokrok a \u010d\u00edm bli\u017e\u0161ie sme k tzv. singularite, t\u00fdm v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie s\u00fa na\u0161e probl\u00e9my. \u013dudstvo hoci by sme mali by\u0165 naj\u0161\u0165astnej\u0161\u00ed v hist\u00f3rii trp\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mom psychick\u00fdch chor\u00f4b. Hoci sa  efektivita pr\u00e1ce dostala v\u010faka industrializ\u00e1cii a automatiz\u00e1cii a dnes u\u017e aj umelej inteligencii na m\u00ed\u013eov\u00e9 kroky vpred za posledn\u00e9 dve storo\u010dia, tak \u010dasu m\u00e1me st\u00e1le menej. Ako sme p\u00edsali TU<\/a>, tak produkujeme to\u013eko potrav\u00edn, \u017ee by sme nas\u00fdtili v\u0161etk\u00fdch, no napriek tomu je vo svete st\u00e1le hlad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analogick\u00e1 situ\u00e1cia je vidite\u013en\u00e1 v oblasti ekol\u00f3gie, o riziku kolapsu sme upozor\u0148ovan\u00ed od za\u010diatku sedemdesiatych rokov a dne\u0161n\u00e9 ekologick\u00e9 politiky s\u00fa do ve\u013ekej miery iba kozmetick\u00fdmi zmenami, ktor\u00e9 probl\u00e9m nerie\u0161ia syst\u00e9movo. Aby sme kolapsu zabr\u00e1nili je potrebn\u00e1 zmena \u013eudsk\u00e9ho zm\u00fd\u0161\u013eania a prechod ku kolekt\u00edvnemu hodnotov\u00e9mu syst\u00e9mu, ktor\u00fd nastav\u00ed nov\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd syst\u00e9m. Pri zmene z egoistick\u00e9ho individualistick\u00e9ho pr\u00edstupu a materialistick\u00e9ho konzumn\u00e9ho sp\u00f4sobu \u017eivota na kolekt\u00edvne myslenie na blaho spolo\u010dnosti podobne ako pred 2000 rokmi by sme v\u0161etky probl\u00e9my v s\u00fa\u010dasnom informa\u010dnom poli vyrie\u0161ili prakticky lusknut\u00edm prsta – skon\u010dili by ekonomick\u00e9 kr\u00edzy, vojny, chudoba a hlad vznikom tzv. noosf\u00e9ry<\/a> (sf\u00e9ry rozumu) teda jednotn\u00e9ho \u013eudstva ako v\u00fdsledok prirodzenej evol\u00facie plan\u00e9ty. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

My v\u0161ak smerujeme do negat\u00edvneho scen\u00e1ra v\u00fdvoja, kedy sf\u00e9ru rozumu postupne zd\u00f4verujeme, resp. odovzd\u00e1vame umelej inteligencii, a ako upozor\u0148uje<\/a> autor svetov\u00e9ho bestselleru Sapiens historik Yuval Harari, tak vznik\u00e1 vrstva \u201enepotrebn\u00fdch \u013eud\u00ed\u201c, ktor\u00fdch vie nahradi\u0165 aj robot pri fyzickej pr\u00e1ci a aj umel\u00e1 inteligencia v kancel\u00e1rskej pr\u00e1ci. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00fdvoju AGI a tot\u00e1lnej globaliz\u00e1cii sveta sa nezabr\u00e1ni, nie s\u00fa to v svojej podstate ani zl\u00e9 veci, d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 je ak\u00fdm tempom a ak\u00fdm sp\u00f4sobom sa k cie\u013eu dopracujeme a \u010di zvl\u00e1dneme prejs\u0165 na nov\u00fd stagna\u010dn\u00fd trend v\u00fdvoja \u013eudskej civiliz\u00e1cie mierovou cestou hladk\u00e9ho prechodu alebo cestou turbulentn\u00e9ho mo\u017eno a\u017e katastrofick\u00e9ho obdobia najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch rokov a\u017e desa\u0165ro\u010d\u00ed a \u010di budeme koexistova\u0165 s AGI alebo sa staneme jej otrokmi.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zobrazi\u0165 \u010dl\u00e1nok v PDF<\/a>Stiahnu\u0165<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cie\u013eom tohto \u010dl\u00e1nku je pribl\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 \u010ditate\u013eovi zmenu glob\u00e1lnych tendenci\u00ed v\u00fdvoja \u013eudskej civiliz\u00e1cie. Existuj\u00fa matematick\u00e9 modely, ktor\u00e9 predpovedali tzv. matematick\u00fa singularitu v\u00fdvoja \u013eudskej civiliz\u00e1cie medzi rokmi 2026-2029, kedy pod\u013ea star\u0161\u00edch trendov malo \u013eudstvo dosahova\u0165 nekone\u010dn\u00e9 hodnoty vo viacer\u00fdch oblastiach. V tomto \u010dase mnoh\u00ed o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa vytvorenie skuto\u010dnej umelej inteligencie.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8533,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNeudr\u017eate\u013en\u00fd pokrok a limity rastu - vytvor\u00edme ut\u00f3piu alebo dyst\u00f3piu? - Veritas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/index.php\/2025\/12\/01\/neudrzatelny-pokrok-a-limity-rastu-vytvorime-utopiu-alebo-dystopiu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sk_SK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Neudr\u017eate\u013en\u00fd pokrok a limity rastu - vytvor\u00edme ut\u00f3piu alebo dyst\u00f3piu? - Veritas\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Cie\u013eom tohto \u010dl\u00e1nku je pribl\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 \u010ditate\u013eovi zmenu glob\u00e1lnych tendenci\u00ed v\u00fdvoja \u013eudskej civiliz\u00e1cie. 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