{"id":8309,"date":"2025-06-13T21:23:48","date_gmt":"2025-06-13T19:23:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/?p=8309"},"modified":"2025-07-15T12:01:14","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T10:01:14","slug":"blizky-vychod-na-prahu-vojny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/index.php\/2025\/06\/13\/blizky-vychod-na-prahu-vojny\/","title":{"rendered":"Bl\u00edzky v\u00fdchod na prahu vojny"},"content":{"rendered":"\n


V \u010dl\u00e1nku v kr\u00e1tkosti prezentujeme n\u00e1\u0161 n\u00e1zor a progn\u00f3zy na aktu\u00e1lnu situ\u00e1ciu na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode v spojitosti s izraelsk\u00fdmi \u00fatokmi na ciele v Ir\u00e1ne v nadv\u00e4znosti na na\u0161e predo\u0161l\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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UPOZORNENIE \u2013 D\u00d4LE\u017dIT\u00c9 INFORM\u00c1CIE<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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POZADIE IZRAELSK\u00ddCH \u00daTOKOV<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky v noci z 12. na 13. j\u00fana predstavuj\u00fa najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed \u00fatok na Ir\u00e1n v s\u00fa\u010dasnej etape konfliktu medzi t\u00fdmito krajinami. Stalo sa tak v \u010dase, kedy USA prezentovali pozit\u00edvny v\u00fdvoj v rokovaniach o novej jadrovej dohode s Ir\u00e1nom. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izrael bol tento \u00fatok schopn\u00fd vies\u0165 najm\u00e4 v\u010faka ned\u00e1vnemu prevratu v S\u00fdrii, kedy Izrael okam\u017eite spustil oper\u00e1ciu na \u00fapln\u00fa likvid\u00e1ciu s\u00fdrskeho letectva a protivzdu\u0161nej obrany. Vtedy tie\u017e roz\u0161\u00edril rozmer kontrolovan\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed v S\u00fdrii, \u010d\u00edm z\u00edskal aj strategick\u00fa v\u00fdhodu vo\u010di Lebanonu a zni\u010den\u00edm s\u00fdrskych vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch s\u00edl, najm\u00e4 vo\u010di Ir\u00e1nu, odkedy dok\u00e1\u017ee nekontrolovane prelieta\u0165 nad S\u00fdrskym \u00fazem\u00edm, tankova\u0165 nad n\u00edm svoje bombard\u00e9ry a to v\u0161etko bez toho, aby S\u00fdria varovala Ir\u00e1n pred izraelsk\u00fdmi leteck\u00fdmi aktivitami, ako to bolo za vl\u00e1dy Ba\u0161\u0161\u00e1ra al-Asada. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Viacer\u00e9 ind\u00edcie nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee sa cel\u00fd \u00fatok udial s po\u017eehnan\u00edm USA, \u010do nazna\u010duj\u00fa aj vyjadrenia americk\u00e9ho vedenia a tie\u017e fakt leteckej aktivity americk\u00fdch lietadiel v regi\u00f3ne pred \u00fatokom. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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PREDZVES\u0164 VOJNY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

O vysokom riziku eskal\u00e1cie konfliktu na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode sme p\u00edsali v na\u0161om \u010dl\u00e1nku o rizik\u00e1ch jadrov\u00fdch vojen<\/a> a na n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fd aspekt izraelo-ir\u00e1nskeho konfliktu sme vymedzili zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 zameran\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nok<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ir\u00e1nsky moslimsk\u00fd teokratick\u00fd re\u017eim pova\u017euje Izrael za \u201c\u010fiabolsk\u00fd \u0161t\u00e1t\u201d a je s Izraelom dlhodobo v konflikte, najm\u00e4 cez svojich proxy spojencov ako Hizball\u00e1h v Libanone, Hamas v Palest\u00edne. Av\u0161ak priamy konflikt medzi t\u00fdmito krajinami sa st\u00e1va st\u00e1le viac pravdepodobn\u00fdm, pesimistickej\u0161ie vyjadren\u00e9 – nevyhnutn\u00fdm. Situ\u00e1cia sa st\u00e1le stup\u0148uje aj v objeme izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fatokov a je ot\u00e1zne, kedy Ir\u00e1nu d\u00f4jde trpezlivos\u0165 a u\u017e nebude m\u00f4c\u0165 viac reagova\u0165 na izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky \u201ciba odvetn\u00fdmi\u201d krokmi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ir\u00e1n m\u00e1 v porovnan\u00ed s Izraelom v\u00fdrazne slab\u0161ie vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 sily a spravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby, a preto jeho mo\u017enosti adekv\u00e1tne reagova\u0165 na izraelsk\u00e9 oper\u00e1cie s\u00fa v\u00fdrazne ni\u017e\u0161ie. Ak v bl\u00edzkej bud\u00facnosti ned\u00f4jde k vyhl\u00e1seniu vojny, tak Ir\u00e1n sa m\u00f4\u017ee definit\u00edvne rozhodn\u00fa\u0165 o ur\u00fdchlen\u00e9 zhotovenie jadrov\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu pre vznik odstra\u0161uj\u00faceho faktoru vo\u010di Izraelu, ktor\u00fd jadrov\u00e9 zbrane vlastn\u00ed. Podobne urobila K\u013dDR, ktor\u00e1 to pova\u017eovala za nevyhnutn\u00fd krok pre ochranu od zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch vplyvov. Ned\u00e1 sa ani vylu\u010di\u0165, \u017ee by Ir\u00e1nu v tejto ot\u00e1zke pomohli zahrani\u010dn\u00ed spojenci, s ktor\u00fdmi maj\u00fa spolo\u010dn\u00e9ho nepriate\u013ea – USA. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izraelu ur\u010dit\u00e1 eskal\u00e1cia nap\u00e4tia s Ir\u00e1nom vyhovuje z d\u00f4vodu, \u017ee Netanyahuova vl\u00e1da \u010del\u00ed zna\u010dnej kritike zo strany svetov\u00e9ho spolo\u010denstva za svoju oper\u00e1ciu v Palest\u00edne, a teda Netanyahu chce t\u00fdmto odp\u00fata\u0165 pozornos\u0165 svetov\u00e9ho spolo\u010denstva od Gazy, a tie\u017e od vn\u00fatorn\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov a kritike, ktorej Netanyahu doma \u010del\u00ed.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Priamym konfliktom medzi Ir\u00e1nom a Izraelom sa m\u00f4\u017ee spusti\u0165 re\u0165azov\u00e1 reakcia konfliktov v regi\u00f3ne, jeho okol\u00ed ale aj vo svete, ktor\u00fd je u\u017e nieko\u013eko rokov na prahu svetovej vojny a pr\u00e1ve Bl\u00edzky v\u00fdchod m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 sp\u00fa\u0161\u0165a\u010dom svetov\u00fdch udalost\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"

Gener\u00e1lmajor Mohammad Bagheri (zdroj: <\/em>Wikipedia<\/em><\/a>)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n



Po\u010das izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fatokov bol, okrem in\u00fdch, zabit\u00fd ir\u00e1nsky gener\u00e1l Bagheri, ktor\u00fd zohr\u00e1val \u00falohu v urovnan\u00ed konfliktu medzi Arm\u00e9nskom a Azerbajd\u017eanom zo strany Ir\u00e1nu, \u010d\u00edm Ir\u00e1n str\u00e1ca schopnosti strategicky a operat\u00edvne reagova\u0165 na potenci\u00e1lne nap\u00e4t\u00fa situ\u00e1ciu na ju\u017enom Kaukaze. Pr\u00e1ve armeno-azerbajd\u017eansk\u00fd konflikt je jeden z konfliktov, ktor\u00fd m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 op\u00e4tovne spusten\u00fd v pr\u00edpade, \u017ee d\u00f4jde k vojne medzi Ir\u00e1nom a Izraelom, nako\u013eko Azerbajd\u017ean je Izraelsk\u00fdm spojencom z d\u00f4vodu n\u00e1rokovania si severo-ir\u00e1nskych \u00fazem\u00ed, kde \u017eije zna\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estvo turkojazy\u010dn\u00e9ho (azerbajd\u017eansk\u00e9ho) obyvate\u013estva, a to aj napriek tomu, \u017ee obe krajiny vyzn\u00e1vaj\u00fa \u0161iitsk\u00fd islam. Toto je mal\u00fd pr\u00edklad toho, ako s\u00fa vz\u0165ahy na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode komplikovane poprepletan\u00e9 a je zlo\u017eit\u00e9 predpoveda\u0165 ak\u00fa konkr\u00e9tnu re\u0165az konfliktov by t\u00e1to vojna mohla spusti\u0165. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zobrazi\u0165 \u010dl\u00e1nok v PDF<\/a>Stiahnu\u0165<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V \u010dl\u00e1nku v kr\u00e1tkosti prezentujeme n\u00e1\u0161 n\u00e1zor a progn\u00f3zy na aktu\u00e1lnu situ\u00e1ciu na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode v spojitosti s izraelsk\u00fdmi \u00fatokmi na ciele v Ir\u00e1ne v nadv\u00e4znosti na na\u0161e predo\u0161l\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8310,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBl\u00edzky v\u00fdchod na prahu vojny - Veritas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/index.php\/2025\/06\/13\/blizky-vychod-na-prahu-vojny\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sk_SK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bl\u00edzky v\u00fdchod na prahu vojny - 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