{"id":8204,"date":"2025-04-03T15:13:54","date_gmt":"2025-04-03T13:13:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/?p=8204"},"modified":"2025-07-15T11:51:21","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T09:51:21","slug":"co-sa-prave-deje-globalny-revolucny-zlom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/index.php\/2025\/04\/03\/co-sa-prave-deje-globalny-revolucny-zlom\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010co sa pr\u00e1ve deje? Glob\u00e1lny (r)evolu\u010dn\u00fd zlom"},"content":{"rendered":"\n


Cie\u013eom tohto \u010dl\u00e1nku je pribl\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 \u010ditate\u013eovi v akom historickom obdob\u00ed sa moment\u00e1lne nach\u00e1dzame na z\u00e1klade dlhodob\u00fdch historick\u00fdch neline\u00e1rnych procesov. \u010cl\u00e1nok tie\u017e poukazuje na to, \u017ee strategick\u00e9 dlhodob\u00e9 progn\u00f3zovanie a pl\u00e1novanie je d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9, nako\u013eko boli s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 tendencie v minulosti predpovedan\u00e9, no na Slovensku dopyt po podobn\u00fdch v\u00fdskumoch absentuje.  <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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UPOZORNENIE \u2013 D\u00d4LE\u017dIT\u00c9 INFORM\u00c1CIE<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

DLHODOB\u00c9 CYKLY KONDRATIEVA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kondtratievove cykly (\u010falej K-cykly) s\u00fa dlhodob\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 vlny kapitalistickej ekonomiky<\/strong>, ktor\u00e9 pop\u00edsal sovietsky ekon\u00f3m Nikolaj Kondratiev. \u0160t\u00fadiom K-cyklov sa daj\u00fa predpoveda\u0165 kr\u00edzy<\/strong>, ale aj transform\u00e1cie svetov\u00e9ho poriadku<\/strong>. K-cykly do ve\u013ekej miery koreluj\u00fa s iplement\u00e1ciou nov\u00fdch technol\u00f3gi\u00ed<\/strong> do ekonomiky, vi\u010f obr. \u010d. 1.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Obr. \u010d. 1: Kondratievove dlhodob\u00e9 cykly na pozad\u00ed novoimplementuj\u00facich sa technol\u00f3gi\u00ed do ekonomiky (zdroj: <\/em>Sadovnichiy et al., 2012<\/em><\/a>)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

V hist\u00f3rii v\u017edy po\u010das st\u00fapaj\u00facej vlny K-cyklu doch\u00e1dzalo k zv\u00fd\u0161enej konfliktnosti<\/strong> a transform\u00e1cii svetov\u00e9ho poriadku. Na za\u010diatku tretieho K-cyklu bola prv\u00e1 svetov\u00e1 vojna, na za\u010diatku \u0161tvrt\u00e9ho druh\u00e1 a v osemdesiatych rokoch sa rozpadol Sovietsky zv\u00e4z a vznikol s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd monocentrick\u00fd svetov\u00fd poriadok<\/strong>, ktor\u00fd je u\u017e nieko\u013eko rokov v kr\u00edze. Na z\u00e1klade anal\u00fdzy K-cyklov boli v minulosti vytvoren\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy, ktor\u00e9 predpovedali vysok\u00fa mieru nap\u00e4tia vo svete a najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie riziko svetovej vojny na dvadsiate roky<\/strong> 21. storo\u010dia (Pantin, Lapkin, 2014<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

K-cykly v\u00fdborne odr\u00e1\u017eaj\u00fa Index cien priemyseln\u00fdch v\u00fdrobcov v zlatom ekvivalente, vi\u010f obr. \u010d. 2. Na \u010dasov\u00e9 rozp\u00e4tie jednotliv\u00fdch cyklov existuj\u00fa r\u00f4zne n\u00e1zory, v z\u00e1sade v\u0161ak plat\u00ed, \u017ee K-cykly sa skracuj\u00fa<\/strong>. Rovnako existuj\u00fa r\u00f4zne odhady na za\u010diatok \u0161iesteho cyklu, no zv\u00e4\u010d\u0161a sa odhady prikl\u00e1\u0148aj\u00fa k dvadsiatym rokom, hoci pand\u00e9mia COVID-19 rap\u00eddne ur\u00fdchlila niektor\u00e9 procesy implement\u00e1cie nov\u00fdch technol\u00f3gi\u00ed do ekonomiky ako napr. posilnen\u00e9 telekomunika\u010dn\u00e9 prostriedky a aplik\u00e1cia di\u0161tan\u010dnej pr\u00e1ce. <\/p>\n\n\n

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Obr. \u010d. 2: Kondratievove cykly a svetov\u00fd l\u00edder na pozad\u00ed Indexu cien priemyseln\u00fdch v\u00fdrobcov USA v zlatom ekvivalente (zdroj: <\/em>Malkov et al., 2016<\/em><\/a>)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n



\u0160iesty cyklus Kondratieva je v\u00fdnimo\u010dn\u00fd t\u00fdm, \u017ee ho viacer\u00ed prognostici pova\u017euj\u00fa za posledn\u00fd<\/strong>, nako\u013eko modely a anal\u00fdzy K-cyklov, skracuj\u00facich sa vplyvom technologick\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja ktor\u00fd je st\u00e1le r\u00fdchlej\u0161\u00ed, nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee K-cykly zmizn\u00fa alebo zmenia svoju formu. Existuj\u00fa \u00favahy o tom, \u017ee \u0161iestou vlnou Kondratieva skon\u010d\u00ed kapitalizmus<\/strong>, ktor\u00fd skuto\u010dne pre\u017e\u00edva obdobie syst\u00e9movej kr\u00edzy. Predpoklady nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee \u0161iesty K-cyklus skon\u010d\u00ed niekedy bli\u017e\u0161ie k p\u00e4\u0165desiatym rokom, no predt\u00fdm mus\u00edme prejs\u0165 vy\u0161\u0161ie uveden\u00fdm rizikov\u00fdm obdob\u00edm dvadsiatych rokov, kedy sa m\u00f4\u017ee vojensky formova\u0165 nov\u00fd svetov\u00fd poriadok. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

ZMENA GLOB\u00c1LNYCH MEGATRENDOV<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V s\u00fa\u010dasnosti sa bl\u00ed\u017eime k svojim limitom rastu, nazna\u010duj\u00fa to viacer\u00e9 d\u00e1ta, ako aj v\u00fdvoj po\u010dtu obyvate\u013eov \u017eij\u00facich v mest\u00e1ch, vi\u010f obr. \u010d. 3. Nikdy v hist\u00f3rii v\u0161ak pri dostatku zdrojov nenast\u00e1vala tak\u00e1 situ\u00e1cia, \u017ee by sa zni\u017eovala p\u00f4rodnos\u0165. T\u00fdmto sp\u00f4sobom sa zastavil trend exponenci\u00e1lneho rastu <\/strong>popul\u00e1cie, ktor\u00fd pod\u013ea matematick\u00fdch modelov zo \u0161es\u0165desiatych rokov<\/a> mal dosiahnu\u0165 nekone\u010dnos\u0165 v roku 2026. Rast mal vysok\u00fa inerciu v\u010faka rap\u00eddnemu technologick\u00e9mu rastu, st\u00e1le vysokej p\u00f4rodnosti a v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm sp\u00f4sobom zni\u017euj\u00facej sa \u00famrtnosti v skor\u0161om veku. V dne\u0161nej dobe sa p\u00f4rodnos\u0165 zni\u017euje vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch krajin\u00e1ch<\/strong>, st\u00e1le vysokou zost\u00e1va vo viacer\u00fdch africk\u00fdch krajin\u00e1ch. Zni\u017euj\u00faca sa p\u00f4rodnos\u0165 \u0161tatisticky koreluje najm\u00e4 s rast\u00facou \u00farov\u0148ou vzdelanosti \u017eien. Zni\u017euj\u00faca sa p\u00f4rodnos\u0165 a zvy\u0161uj\u00faca sa \u00farove\u0148 zdravotn\u00edctva m\u00e1 za n\u00e1sledok starnutie popul\u00e1cie<\/strong>, tento trend je najdlh\u0161ie trvaj\u00faci a najviac badate\u013en\u00fd v Japonsku. <\/p>\n\n\n

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Obr. \u010d. 3: Svetov\u00e9 mestsk\u00e9 obyvate\u013estvo, v mili\u00f3noch, logaritmick\u00e1 \u0161k\u00e1la (zdroj: Sadovnichy et al., 2023<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Na grafe obr\u00e1zku \u010d. 3 vid\u00edme predstaven\u00fa te\u00f3riu meniacej sa \u013eudskej civiliz\u00e1cie na z\u00e1klade v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch zlomov v trende civiliza\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja, ktor\u00fd demografick\u00e9 d\u00e1ta v\u00fdborne kop\u00edruj\u00fa. Zameriame sa v\u0161ak len na trendy za posledn\u00fdch 3000 rokov. Podobn\u00e1 situ\u00e1cia civiliza\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja nast\u00e1vala v tzv. osovej dobe<\/strong> (cca 800 pred Kr. – 300 pred Kr.), kedy do\u0161lo ku v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm civiliza\u010dn\u00fdm a intelektu\u00e1lnym skokom<\/strong> po celej Eur\u00e1zii. V tomto obdob\u00ed vznikli najv\u00fdznamnej\u0161ie pr\u00e1ce gr\u00e9ckych filozofov, budhizmus, zoroastrianizmus, konfucianizmus, po osovej dobe vzniklo kres\u0165anstvo v \u010dase, ke\u010f sa trendy vtedaj\u0161ieho rap\u00eddneho rastu spomalovali, a\u017e do\u0161lo k stagn\u00e1cii a za\u010dalo sa tzv. stredovek\u00e9 obdobie<\/strong>. V osovej dobe za\u017e\u00edvali svoj rozmach aj v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 antick\u00e9 imp\u00e9ri\u00e1<\/strong> od gr\u00e9ckych po R\u00edm v Eur\u00f3pe a \u010c\u00edny v \u00c1zii. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00fdznamn\u00fa \u00falohu v spomalen\u00ed rastu zohralo aj glob\u00e1lne ochladenie plan\u00e9ty<\/strong> v tej dobe, \u010do sp\u00f4sobilo tzv. ve\u013ek\u00e9 s\u0165ahovanie n\u00e1rodov.<\/strong> N\u00e1rody zo severu sa chceli presun\u00fa\u0165 ju\u017enej\u0161ie, kde bol R\u00edm, ktor\u00fd pri svojom \u00fapadku nedok\u00e1zal odola\u0165 n\u00e1tlaku n\u00e1rodov zo severu, \u010do viedlo k jeho rozpadu<\/strong> najsk\u00f4r na z\u00e1pade (R\u00edm) a nesk\u00f4r na v\u00fdchode (Kon\u0161tant\u00ednopol). V stretoveku v \u00c1zii aj v Eur\u00f3pe nastupuje feudalizmus<\/strong> a\u017e do pr\u00edchodu tzv. obdobia renesancie, kedy sa za\u010dala zvy\u0161ova\u0165 aj teplota plan\u00e9ty a Eur\u00f3pa bola n\u00faten\u00e1 hlada\u0165 nov\u00e9 obchodn\u00e9 cesty<\/strong> kv\u00f4li moslimami ovl\u00e1danej starej hodv\u00e1bnej ceste. V tom \u010dase sa za\u010dali rodi\u0165 modern\u00e1 veda a kapitalizmus<\/strong>, a nesk\u00f4r s objaven\u00edm parn\u00e9ho stroja pri\u0161la industrializ\u00e1cia<\/strong>. Rast vtedy skuto\u010dne nabral exponenci\u00e1lnu krivku, ktorej nekone\u010dnos\u0165 predpovedali vo vy\u0161\u0161ie spomenutej pr\u00e1ci na rok 2026. Moment\u00e1lne sa popula\u010dn\u00e9 trendy spomaluj\u00fa <\/strong>a viacer\u00e9 aktu\u00e1lne demografick\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee zatia\u013e rozbehnut\u00fd popula\u010dn\u00fd rast sa zastav\u00ed a svetov\u00e1 popul\u00e1cia m\u00f4\u017ee za\u010da\u0165 klesa\u0165 <\/strong>v priebehu najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch desa\u0165ro\u010d\u00ed (cca 2050).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technologick\u00fd rast v\u0161ak pokra\u010duje, no svetov\u00e1 kapitalistick\u00e1 ekonomika sa bl\u00ed\u017ei k svojim limitom<\/strong>. Modely a historick\u00e9 d\u00e1ta nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti sme svedkami zlomu dlhodob\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch cyklov ale aj historick\u00fdch megatrendov, na \u010do poukazoval aj model v publik\u00e1ci\u00ed Limity rastu<\/a> z roku 1972, kedy D. Meadows s jeho t\u00edmom z MIT vytvorili model World3<\/strong>, ktor\u00fd poukazoval na to, \u017ee ak sa trendy n\u00e1\u0161ho rastu nezmenia, tak n\u00e1m hroz\u00ed ekologick\u00fd kolaps – <\/strong>vi\u010f obr. \u010d. 4. Na z\u00e1klade dan\u00e9ho modelu sa za\u010dalo hovori\u0165 o zne\u010dis\u0165ovan\u00ed plan\u00e9ty a potreby rie\u0161enia ekologick\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov, ktor\u00e9 sp\u00f4sobovalo zne\u010distenie z industri\u00e1lnej produkcie aj zne\u010distenie sp\u00f4soben\u00e9 rast\u00facim konzumn\u00fdm sp\u00f4sobom \u017eivota vo svete. <\/p>\n\n\n

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Obr. \u010d. 4: V\u00fdstup modelu World3 (zdroj: <\/em>Springer<\/em><\/a>)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00c1VER<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vo svete existuj\u00fa pr\u00e1ce, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 zlomov\u00e9 obdobie predpovedali. Je d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 aby sme vedeli prija\u0165 realitu<\/strong> a v\u010dasne vytv\u00e1rali pl\u00e1ny ako na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy reagova\u0165<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je nevyhnutn\u00e9 Slovensko pripravi\u0165<\/strong> na v\u00fdznamn\u00fa transform\u00e1ciu svetov\u00e9ho poriadku<\/strong>, ktor\u00fd m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 sformovan\u00fd po nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch vojnov\u00fdch konfliktoch. Rovnako je potrebn\u00e9 pripravi\u0165 sa na transform\u00e1ciu svetov\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho a finan\u010dn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, ku zmene ktor\u00e9ho rovnako smerujeme. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ako \u013eudstvo sme dosiahli \u00farove\u0148, kedy u\u017e d\u00e1vno mohol by\u0165 vyrie\u0161en\u00fd probl\u00e9m hladu a chudoby, no tie st\u00e1le zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa s\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou na\u0161ej ka\u017edodennej reality. Dajme si pozor aby sme ako \u013eudstvo pri rie\u0161en\u00ed dne\u0161n\u00fdch v\u00fdziev v\u0161etko e\u0161te nezhor\u0161ili. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zobrazi\u0165 \u010dl\u00e1nok v PDF<\/a>Stiahnu\u0165<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cie\u013eom tohto \u010dl\u00e1nku je pribl\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 \u010ditate\u013eovi v akom historickom obdob\u00ed sa moment\u00e1lne nach\u00e1dzame na z\u00e1klade dlhodob\u00fdch historick\u00fdch neline\u00e1rnych procesov. \u010cl\u00e1nok tie\u017e poukazuje na to, \u017ee strategick\u00e9 dlhodob\u00e9 progn\u00f3zovanie a pl\u00e1novanie je d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9, nako\u013eko boli s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 tendencie v minulosti predpovedan\u00e9, no na Slovensku dopyt po podobn\u00fdch v\u00fdskumoch absentuje. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8205,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u010co sa pr\u00e1ve deje? Glob\u00e1lny (r)evolu\u010dn\u00fd zlom - Veritas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/index.php\/2025\/04\/03\/co-sa-prave-deje-globalny-revolucny-zlom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sk_SK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u010co sa pr\u00e1ve deje? 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