{"id":7235,"date":"2025-03-11T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/?p=7235"},"modified":"2025-07-15T11:44:53","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T09:44:53","slug":"riziko-jadrovych-vojen-cesta-k-novemu-svetovemu-poriadku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/riziko-jadrovych-vojen-cesta-k-novemu-svetovemu-poriadku\/","title":{"rendered":"Riziko jadrov\u00fdch vojen: Cesta k nov\u00e9mu svetov\u00e9mu poriadku"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

V \u010dl\u00e1nku sa zaober\u00e1me s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdmi a potenci\u00e1lnymi rizikami ozbrojen\u00fdch konfliktov vo svete, ako aj ich pr\u00ed\u010dinami. Zvl\u00e1\u0161tnu pozornos\u0165 venujeme konfliktom, ktor\u00e9 by mohli prer\u00e1s\u0165 do jadrovej vojny. Cie\u013eom \u010dl\u00e1nku je dosiahnu\u0165 maxim\u00e1lnu objektivitu v r\u00e1mci jeho rozsahov\u00fdch obmedzen\u00ed. Nejde o hodnotenie o mor\u00e1lneho aspektu tejto problematiky, ale o zva\u017eovanie potenci\u00e1lnych hrozieb.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

UPOZORNENIE – D\u00d4LE\u017dIT\u00c9 INFORM\u00c1CIE<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Po zvolen\u00ed Donalda Trumpa nastalo rozporupln\u00e9 obdobie, po\u010das ktor\u00e9ho \u010das\u0165 slovenskej i svetovej spolo\u010dnosti pre\u0161la do f\u00e1zy optimizmu, ke\u010f americk\u00fd prezident za\u010dal prij\u00edma\u0165 akt\u00edvne kroky na ukon\u010denie vojny na Ukrajine. Druh\u00e1 \u010das\u0165 spolo\u010dnosti sa dostala do f\u00e1zy strachu z toho, \u017ee Trump vysiela sign\u00e1ly, pod\u013ea ktor\u00fdch Euroatlantick\u00fd priestor nie je pre neho d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fd<\/strong>. V oboch pr\u00edpadoch je potrebn\u00e9 na situ\u00e1ciu pozera\u0165 z viacer\u00fdch uhlov, ktor\u00e9 si pribl\u00ed\u017eime v nasleduj\u00facich odsekoch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V s\u00fa\u010dasnosti sa nach\u00e1dzame v ve\u013emi v\u00fdznamnom zlomovom obdob\u00ed, kedy doch\u00e1dza k formovaniu nov\u00e9ho svetov\u00e9ho poriadku. T\u00e1to situ\u00e1cia bola u\u017e v minulosti predpovedan\u00e1 na z\u00e1klade anal\u00fdzy tzv. Kondratievov\u00fdch dlhodob\u00fdch cyklov<\/strong>, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa tie\u017e naz\u00fdvan\u00e9 cyklami kapitalizmu alebo technologick\u00fdmi cyklami. Pri ka\u017edej nastupuj\u00facej vlne nov\u00e9ho Kondratievovho cyklu, ke\u010f sa v ekonomike a v ozbrojen\u00fdch sil\u00e1ch za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00fa akt\u00edvne aplikova\u0165 nov\u00e9 prelomov\u00e9 technol\u00f3gie, sa zvy\u0161uje konfliktnos\u0165<\/strong> vo svete a n\u00e1sledne nast\u00e1va radik\u00e1lna zmena svetov\u00e9ho poriadku<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rovnak\u00e1 situ\u00e1cia nastala po prvej svetovej vojne, ke\u010f vo svete fungoval tzv. Versaillsk\u00fd poriadok, po druhej svetovej vojne tzv. Jaltsko-Postupimsk\u00fd poriadok a posledn\u00e1 transform\u00e1cia nastala na prelome osemdesiatych a dev\u00e4\u0165desiatych rokov, ke\u010f sa rozpadol Sovietsky zv\u00e4z a nastolil sa s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd monocentrick\u00fd svetov\u00fd poriadok okolo USA, ktor\u00fd m\u00e1 tendenciu pretransformova\u0165 sa na polycentrick\u00fd poriadok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Posledn\u00fd zlom v osemdesiatych rokoch bol ve\u013emi mierny v porovnan\u00ed s predo\u0161l\u00fdmi. Predpovedan\u00fd zlom v 20. rokoch bol od\u0161tartovan\u00fd vojnou na Ukrajine<\/strong>, ktor\u00e1 \u2013 ak sa ni\u010d nezmen\u00ed \u2013 m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 podobnou predzves\u0165ou nie\u010doho v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ieho<\/strong>, ako bola \u0160panielska ob\u010dianska vojna pred Druhou svetovou vojnou. Tieto procesy sa za\u010dali u\u017e Vladim\u00edrom Putinom v jeho vyst\u00fapen\u00ed na Mn\u00edchovskej bezpe\u010dnostnej konferencii v roku 2007<\/a>, ke\u010f v\u0161ak Rusko e\u0161te nebolo schopn\u00e9 vzdorova\u0165 moci USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 kroky Trumpovej administrat\u00edvy nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee v USA pochopili, \u017ee Amerika u\u017e nie je schopn\u00e1 by\u0165 vojensky pr\u00edtomn\u00e1 na celom svete<\/strong>. D\u00f4vodom s\u00fa vn\u00fatorn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 probl\u00e9my v USA, kde prakticky prestala existova\u0165 my\u0161lienka tzv. americk\u00e9ho sna o ve\u013ekej strednej triede, a tie\u017e rast\u00faca sila protip\u00f3lov USA, najm\u00e4 s centrami v Pekingu a Moskve. Pre USA a Trumpovu administrat\u00edvu bud\u00fa vonkaj\u0161ou geopolitickou prioritou sk\u00f4r Tich\u00fd oce\u00e1n a Bl\u00edzky v\u00fdchod<\/strong>, preto je v relat\u00edvne bl\u00edzkej bud\u00facnosti re\u00e1lnou mo\u017enos\u0165ou \u201eamerick\u00fd odstup\u201c od Eur\u00f3py. V pr\u00edpade, \u017ee by Amerika chcela na\u010falej zosta\u0165 glob\u00e1lne dominantnou a zachova\u0165 svoj tridsa\u0165ro\u010dn\u00fd svetov\u00fd poriadok, mohlo by to pre \u0148u dopadn\u00fa\u0165 ve\u013emi zle, a to z d\u00f4vodu rizika vzplanutia potenci\u00e1lnych konfliktov po celom svete, ktor\u00e9 by mohli USA bezpe\u010dnostne aj ekonomicky rozlo\u017ei\u0165.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

UKRAJINA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vojna na Ukrajine je u\u017e dlhodobo tzv. pomalou vojnou na vy\u010derpanie<\/strong>. Ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt sa stal uk\u00e1\u017ekou modernej vojny medzi technologicky vyspel\u00fdmi protivn\u00edkmi, ktor\u00e1 je z\u00e1kopov\u00e1 a dronov\u00e1<\/strong>. Rusi spo\u010diatku za\u010dali konflikt ve\u013emi zle, ke\u010f systematicky zlyh\u00e1valo z\u00e1sobovanie jednotiek a rusk\u00e9 dronov\u00e9 vojsk\u00e1 boli na ve\u013emi n\u00edzkej \u00farovni v\u00fdvoja. Tieto probl\u00e9my v\u0161ak Rusko prekonalo a u\u017e dlhodobo pou\u017e\u00edva drony na bojisku, \u010di u\u017e zahrani\u010dnej, alebo dom\u00e1cej produkcie. M\u00e1 aj ve\u013emi siln\u00e9 \u013eudsk\u00e9 zdroje v tejto oblasti a v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti sa spolu s Ukrajinou rad\u00ed medzi svetov\u00fa \u0161pi\u010dku v dronovom boji.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrajina m\u00e1 dlhodob\u00fa podporu z\u00e1padn\u00fdch spravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eieb, v\u010faka \u010domu dok\u00e1\u017ee ve\u013emi efekt\u00edvne koordinova\u0165 \u0161peci\u00e1lne oper\u00e1cie a celkov\u00fa strat\u00e9giu na bojisku, \u010do jej, okrem samotn\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch dod\u00e1vok, umo\u017e\u0148uje dlhodobo odol\u00e1va\u0165 rusk\u00e9mu n\u00e1tlaku<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusko m\u00e1 v\u0161ak od za\u010diatku konfliktu nesmiernu prevahu v delostreleck\u00fdch \u00fatokoch a st\u00e1le zna\u010dn\u00fa prevahu v akt\u00edvnej aj potenci\u00e1lnej \u017eivej sile. Ukrajina je od za\u010diatku zvonka podporovan\u00e1 iba tak, aby bola schopn\u00e1 vzdorova\u0165, nie v\u0161ak vyhra\u0165<\/strong>, a jedin\u00fd sp\u00f4sob, ako by bolo mo\u017en\u00e9 Rusko porazi\u0165, bola jeho potenci\u00e1lna vn\u00fatorn\u00e1 destabiliz\u00e1cia. Na to, aby sa dalo Rusko v tomto konflikte vojensky porazi\u0165, by bola potrebn\u00e1 akt\u00edvna podpora Z\u00e1padu, mo\u017eno aj za cenu priameho vojensk\u00e9ho zapojenia cudz\u00edch \u0161t\u00e1tov, \u010do by v\u0161ak mohlo vy\u00fasti\u0165 do rusk\u00e9ho jadrov\u00e9ho \u00fatoku. Hoci je pre Rusko vedenie tejto tzv. \u0161peci\u00e1lnej vojenskej oper\u00e1cie na Ukrajine vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00face, scen\u00e1r jeho vn\u00fatornej destabiliz\u00e1cie<\/strong>, ako aj priameho zapojenia Z\u00e1padu do vojny, je moment\u00e1lne nepravdepodobn\u00fd<\/strong>. Ukrajina je pre Rusko strategickou geopolitickou prioritou, a vyjedna\u0165 mier po tom, \u010do ho t\u00e1to vojna u\u017e st\u00e1la, nebude jednoduch\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na re\u00e1lne ukon\u010denie konfliktu bude potrebn\u00e9 dosiahnu\u0165 dohodu za cenu zmeny ukrajinsk\u00fdch hran\u00edc<\/strong>. Inak, pri vy\u010derpan\u00ed Ruska a dostato\u010dnej podpore Ukrajiny, ktor\u00e1 zo strany USA nie je pozastaven\u00e1, m\u00f4\u017ee konflikt zamrzn\u00fa\u0165 na l\u00ednii bl\u00edzkej s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9mu frontu. V s\u00fa\u010dasnosti je scen\u00e1r, v ktorom by hrozila destabiliz\u00e1cia Ruska a rusk\u00e9 velenie by sa rozhodlo pre pou\u017eitie jadrov\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu (najm\u00e4 taktick\u00e9ho na \u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny), st\u00e1le ve\u013emi nepravdepodobn\u00fd. T\u00e1to mo\u017enos\u0165 je v\u0161ak jedin\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lnym scen\u00e1rom v najbli\u017e\u0161om \u010dasovom horizonte, pri ktorom by mohlo d\u00f4js\u0165 k deton\u00e1cii jadrov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed susedn\u00e9ho \u0161t\u00e1tu. Ak by Ukrajina pri\u0161la o dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed zvonka, Rusko by mohlo v kr\u00e1tkom \u010dasovom horizonte z\u00edska\u0165 ove\u013ea viac, ako je mo\u017en\u00e9 v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti vyjedna\u0165,<\/strong> nako\u013eko ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 sily s\u00fa \u00faplne z\u00e1visl\u00e9 od t\u00fdchto dod\u00e1vok a trpia rast\u00facim nedostatkom \u017eivej sily. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

K dohode medzi USA a Ruskom m\u00f4\u017ee d\u00f4js\u0165, \u010d\u00edm by sa Amerika zamerala na in\u00e9 priority, z\u00edskala pr\u00edstup k ukrajinsk\u00fdm nerastn\u00fdm surovin\u00e1m a rusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 sily by sa stali najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ou vojenskou silou v Eur\u00f3pe. Maj\u00fa toti\u017e bohat\u00e9 sk\u00fasenosti z modernej vojny a maxim\u00e1lne rozbehnut\u00fd komplex vojenskej produkcie, ktor\u00fd by v bud\u00facnosti mohol prispie\u0165 k ovplyvneniu in\u00fdch potenci\u00e1lnych konfliktov vo svete. Rovnako by vznikol nov\u00fd precedens, ktor\u00fd by podkop\u00e1val u\u017e beztak na\u0161trben\u00fd princ\u00edp OSN o nemenite\u013enosti hran\u00edc<\/strong>. Slovensko s takouto politikou z uveden\u00e9ho d\u00f4vodu nebude verejne s\u00fahlasi\u0165.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

BL\u00cdZKY V\u00ddCHOD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ako bolo vy\u0161\u0161ie spomenut\u00e9, jedn\u00fdm z prioritn\u00fdch regi\u00f3nov pre Trumpovu administrat\u00edvu bude Bl\u00edzky v\u00fdchod, a teda podpora Izraela, nako\u013eko proizraelsk\u00e1 americk\u00e1 lobby m\u00e1 k Trumpovi ve\u013emi bl\u00edzko<\/strong>. Ide najm\u00e4 o americk\u00fdch \u017didov a konzervat\u00edvnych evanjelikov, ktor\u00ed Trumpa podporovali v oboch kampaniach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izraelsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da sa v\u010faka tejto podpore c\u00edti istej\u0161ie a bude odv\u00e1\u017enej\u0161ia pri zva\u017eovan\u00ed riskantnej\u0161\u00edch strat\u00e9gi\u00ed. S\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e1 Netanyahuova vl\u00e1da (premi\u00e9r Izraela) je najradik\u00e1lnej\u0161ou pravicovou vl\u00e1dou v hist\u00f3rii Izraela<\/strong>. K\u00fdm v dvadsiatom storo\u010d\u00ed v Izraeli vl\u00e1dli najm\u00e4 soci\u00e1lni demokrati, po vo\u013eb\u00e1ch v roku 2022 Benjamin Netanyahu zlo\u017eil vl\u00e1du, v ktorej je okrem in\u00fdch aj N\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e1 sionistick\u00e1 strana<\/strong> sic Bezalela Smotri\u010da, predstavite\u013ea radik\u00e1lnej\u0161ej antiarabskej izraelskej politiky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izrael je od minul\u00e9ho roku pripraven\u00fd na v\u00fdstavbu \u017eidovsk\u00e9ho<\/strong> (tretieho) chr\u00e1mu v Jeruzaleme<\/strong>, tejto ot\u00e1zke sa pl\u00e1nujeme venova\u0165 osobitne v bud\u00facom \u010dl\u00e1nku. Potenci\u00e1lna stavba chr\u00e1mu ohrozuje komplex me\u0161ity Al-Aks\u00e1 <\/strong>a moslimovia t\u00fato my\u0161lienku vn\u00edmaj\u00fa ve\u013emi negat\u00edvne. Ak by \u017didia zb\u00farali Al-Aksu, tretie najd\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161ie p\u00fatnick\u00e9 miesto moslimov, a postavili na jej mieste svoj chr\u00e1m, je pravdepodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by sa rozdelen\u00fd moslimsk\u00fd svet mohol zjednoti\u0165 v boji proti Izraelu. N\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 re\u017eimy, ako teokratick\u00e1 vl\u00e1da v Ir\u00e1ne \u010di vl\u00e1da Talibanu v Afganistane, by to pravdepodobne pova\u017eovali za sv\u00e4t\u00fa vojnu<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Po bleskovom zvrhnut\u00ed Assadovho re\u017eimu v S\u00fdrii Izrael okam\u017eite spustil vojensk\u00e9 oper\u00e1cie na jej \u00fazem\u00ed, roz\u0161\u00edril svoju kontrolu nad Golansk\u00fdmi v\u00fd\u0161inami vr\u00e1tane hory Hermon, ktor\u00e1 sl\u00fa\u017ei ako radarov\u00fd \u0161t\u00edt vo\u010di Libanonu, \u010d\u00edm Izrael z\u00edskal lep\u0161iu strategick\u00fa v\u00fdhodu nad t\u00fdmto \u00fazem\u00edm. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 pomocou dia\u013ekov\u00fdch vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch \u00fatokov prakticky zne\u0161kodnil s\u00fdrske letectvo a protivzdu\u0161n\u00fa obranu, \u010d\u00edm z\u00edskal mo\u017enos\u0165 letecky \u00fato\u010di\u0165 na \u00fazemie Ir\u00e1nu.<\/strong> S\u00fdrska protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana toti\u017e dok\u00e1zala v\u010das varova\u0165 Ir\u00e1n pred potenci\u00e1lnymi leteck\u00fdmi \u00fatokmi z Izraela, nako\u013eko aj najmodernej\u0161ie, \u0165a\u017eko radarmi detekovate\u013en\u00e9 stroje F-35 nedok\u00e1zali na jedno natankovanie samostatne vykon\u00e1va\u0165 oper\u00e1cie medzi \u00fazemiami Izraela a Ir\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V pr\u00edpade, \u017ee by do\u0161lo k vojne medzi Ir\u00e1nom a Izraelom, mohla by sa spusti\u0165 aj vlna \u010fal\u0161\u00edch konfliktov v regi\u00f3ne. Tento konflikt by potenci\u00e1lne mohol \u013eahko prer\u00e1s\u0165 do region\u00e1lnej jadrovej vojny<\/strong>, nako\u013eko Izrael disponuje jadrov\u00fdmi zbra\u0148ami a Ir\u00e1n je pravdepodobne ve\u013emi bl\u00edzko k ich vyvinutiu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u00c1ZIA (\u010eALEK\u00dd V\u00ddCHOD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V analytick\u00fdch kruhoch sa dlhodobo akt\u00edvne zva\u017euje mo\u017enos\u0165 konfliktu v Tichom oce\u00e1ne, ktor\u00e9ho sp\u00fa\u0161\u0165a\u010dom by mohla by\u0165 potenci\u00e1lna vojensk\u00e1 oper\u00e1cia \u010c\u00edny na Taiwane<\/strong>. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 v dlhodob\u00fdch pl\u00e1noch nastaven\u00fd program roz\u0161irovania geopolitickej kontroly v Tichom oce\u00e1ne a Taiwan patr\u00ed do prvej vlny roz\u0161irovania jej vplyvu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Donald<\/strong> Trump pova\u017euje \u010c\u00ednu za hlavn\u00e9ho konkurenta Ameriky <\/strong>z viacer\u00fdch d\u00f4vodov a obe krajiny sa pripravuj\u00fa na potenci\u00e1lny konflikt. \u010c\u00edna dlhodobo akt\u00edvne zbroj\u00ed a Amerika obnovuje svoje star\u00e9 z\u00e1kladne z druhej svetovej vojny<\/a> v spriatelen\u00fdch krajin\u00e1ch Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu. Pr\u00edkladom bl\u00edzkeho spojenca s\u00fa v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti najm\u00e4 Filip\u00edny, ktor\u00e9 sa sp\u00e1jaj\u00fa s USA z ob\u00e1v pred  potenci\u00e1lnou \u010d\u00ednskou expanziou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potenci\u00e1lny konflikt na Taiwane by mohol spusti\u0165 konflikt na K\u00f3rejskom polostrove<\/strong>, kde sa obe K\u00f3rey akt\u00edvne pripravuj\u00fa na mo\u017en\u00fa vojnu. Severn\u00e1 K\u00f3rea si je istej\u0161ia v\u010faka vlastn\u00edctvu jadrov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed<\/strong> a posil\u0148uje svoju pripravenos\u0165 vysielan\u00edm svojich vojakov do Ruska a poskytovan\u00edm mun\u00edcie Rusku v\u00fdmenou za vojensk\u00e9 technol\u00f3gie. T\u00fdmto sp\u00f4sobom sa zastaran\u00e1 severok\u00f3rejsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da pripravuje na modern\u00fd konflikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dan\u00fa situ\u00e1ciu okrem Ju\u017enej K\u00f3rey vn\u00edma ve\u013emi negat\u00edvne aj Japonsko, ktor\u00e9 je ohrozen\u00e9 potenci\u00e1lnym severok\u00f3rejsk\u00fdm nukle\u00e1rnym \u00fatokom. Japonsko<\/strong>, ako region\u00e1lny spojenec USA, v posledn\u00fdch rokoch v\u00fdrazne zbroj\u00ed<\/strong> a posil\u0148uje svoje ozbrojen\u00e9 sily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potenci\u00e1lny konflikt v Tichom oce\u00e1ne je obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd, ke\u010f\u017ee by mohlo \u00eds\u0165 o priamy stret dvoch jadrov\u00fdch ve\u013emoc\u00ed <\/strong>\u2013 \u010c\u00edny a USA. Tento konflikt by z\u00e1rove\u0148 mohol spusti\u0165 re\u0165azov\u00fa reakciu \u010fal\u0161\u00edch vojen<\/strong>, \u010di u\u017e v \u00c1zii alebo inde vo svete, ke\u010f\u017ee mnoh\u00e9 konflikty s\u00fa zatia\u013e utlmen\u00e9 len v\u010faka obav\u00e1m ich potenci\u00e1lnych akt\u00e9rov z vonkaj\u0161ej intervencie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V pr\u00edpade takejto vojny by sa mohol aktivizova\u0165 zamrznut\u00fd konflikt medzi Indiou a Pakistanom v Ka\u0161m\u00edre<\/strong>. India vedie politiku otvoren\u00fa vo\u010di viacer\u00fdm svetov\u00fdm mocnostiam \u2013 spolupracuje s \u010c\u00ednou a Ruskom napr\u00edklad v r\u00e1mci BRICS, no z\u00e1rove\u0148 sa ob\u00e1va \u010d\u00ednskej expanzie v regi\u00f3ne, a preto sa sp\u00e1ja aj s USA v r\u00e1mci tichooce\u00e1nskej aliancie QUAD (Austr\u00e1lia, India, Japonsko, USA). V pr\u00edpade nap\u00e4tej situ\u00e1cie si v\u0161ak bude musie\u0165 India vybra\u0165 stranu, ke\u010f\u017ee obe mocnosti sa ju bud\u00fa sna\u017ei\u0165 pritiahnu\u0165 na svoju stranu a zachovanie neutrality nemus\u00ed by\u0165 pre Indiu dlhodobo mo\u017en\u00e9<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India m\u00e1 s Pakistanom historicky ve\u013emi nap\u00e4t\u00e9 vz\u0165ahy, pri\u010dom silnej\u00faci hinduistick\u00fd nacionalizmus za vl\u00e1dy premi\u00e9ra Narendru Modiho toto nap\u00e4tie e\u0161te viac pri\u017eivuje. Pakistan je region\u00e1lnym partnerom \u010c\u00edny<\/strong> a obe krajiny disponuj\u00fa jadrov\u00fdm arzen\u00e1lom. V pr\u00edpade vojny medzi \u010c\u00ednou a alianciou, ktorej by bola India s\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou, by bolo potenci\u00e1lne v z\u00e1ujme \u010c\u00edny spustenie vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu medzi Indiou a Pakistanom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z h\u013eadiska svetovej bezpe\u010dnosti a ot\u00e1zky pre\u017eitia \u013eudskej civiliz\u00e1cie predstavuje potenci\u00e1lny konflikt v Tichom oce\u00e1ne najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie nebezpe\u010denstvo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

IN\u00c9 REGI\u00d3NY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Afrika \u010del\u00ed v mnoh\u00fdch krajin\u00e1ch ob\u010dianskym vojn\u00e1m, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa d\u00f4sledkom nov\u00e9ho kolonializmu \u2013 boja o africk\u00e9 nerastn\u00e9 bohatstvo<\/strong>. Ide o proxy konflikty medzi star\u00fdmi koloni\u00e1lnymi mocnos\u0165ami, najm\u00e4 Franc\u00fazskom, a nov\u00fdmi hr\u00e1\u010dmi, ako s\u00fa Rusko a \u010c\u00edna. \u010c\u00edna je v regi\u00f3ne ekonomicky najakt\u00edvnej\u0161ia<\/strong> a u\u017e dlhodobo najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm investorom v Afrike. Rusko si naopak buduje vplyv prostredn\u00edctvom \u017eoldnierskych skup\u00edn ako Wagner<\/strong>, ktor\u00e9 podporuj\u00fa miestne re\u017eimy bojuj\u00face proti vplyvu b\u00fdval\u00fdch koloni\u00e1lnych mocnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Najv\u00e1\u017enej\u0161\u00edm konfliktom v Afrike by mohla by\u0165 potenci\u00e1lna vojna na Africkom rohu <\/strong>a v severov\u00fdchodnej Afrike, kde by sa teoreticky mohli priamo anga\u017eova\u0165 svetov\u00e9 mocnosti kv\u00f4li svojim vojensk\u00fdm z\u00e1kladniam v D\u017eibuti<\/strong>. Eti\u00f3pia m\u00e1 <\/strong>napriek svojim vn\u00fatorn\u00fdm nepokojom z\u00e1ujem o z\u00edskanie pr\u00edstupu k moru<\/strong>, \u010do by mohlo by\u0165 na \u00fakor D\u017eibuti a Eritrey. Do konfliktu by sa mohli zapoji\u0165 aj Sud\u00e1n a Egypt, ktor\u00e9 maj\u00fa dlhodob\u00e9 spory s Eti\u00f3piou pre v\u00fdstavbu gigantickej priehrady na N\u00edle. V minulosti existovali obavy, \u017ee by priehrada mohla fat\u00e1lne zn\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 tok N\u00edlu do Sud\u00e1nu a Egypta, \u010do by mohlo vies\u0165 k vojenskej eskal\u00e1cii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Konflikty o vo<\/strong>dn\u00e9 zdroje predstavuj\u00fa aktu\u00e1lnu hrozbu v r\u00f4znych regi\u00f3noch sveta. Okrem potenci\u00e1lneho konfliktu o tok N\u00edlu medzi Eti\u00f3piou, Sud\u00e1nom a Egyptom<\/strong> hroz\u00ed aj nap\u00e4tie na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode, kde by Turecko mohlo obmedzi\u0165 tok Eufratu<\/strong>. T\u00e1to rieka, ktor\u00e1 je u\u017e oslaben\u00e1, je k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e1 pre S\u00fdriu a Irak. Podobn\u00e1 situ\u00e1cia nast\u00e1va medzi \u010c\u00ednou a Indiou<\/strong>, kde by \u010c\u00edna mohla obmedzi\u0165 prietok Brahmaputry, ktor\u00e1 je pre Indiu \u017eivotne d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010eal\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1lny vojensk\u00fd konflikt m\u00f4\u017ee vypukn\u00fa\u0165 medzi Ir\u00e1nom a Afganistanom pre tok rieky Hilmand<\/strong>. T\u00e1to rieka je k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e1 pre v\u00fdchodn\u00fd Ir\u00e1n, a jej obmedzenie zo strany Afganistanu by mohlo vies\u0165 k eskal\u00e1cii nap\u00e4tia medzi oboma krajinami.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ozbrojen\u00fd konflikt m\u00f4\u017ee vypukn\u00fa\u0165 aj v Latinskej Amerike, kde m\u00e1 Venezuela dlhodob\u00e9 teritori\u00e1lne spory s Guyanou<\/strong>, ktor\u00e9 siahaj\u00fa e\u0161te do koloni\u00e1lneho obdobia. Nap\u00e4tie v regi\u00f3ne vzr\u00e1stlo po objaven\u00ed rozsiahlych lo\u017e\u00edsk ropy v guayanskej ekonomickej z\u00f3ne, kde sa za\u010dali aktivizova\u0165 z\u00e1padn\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti. Hoci Venezuela v minulosti otvorene prezentovala pl\u00e1ny na vojensk\u00e9 obsadenie \u010dasti Guyany, v poslednom obdob\u00ed zmiernila svoju r\u00e9toriku a zd\u00e1 sa, \u017ee od expanzn\u00fdch amb\u00edci\u00ed ustupuje.<\/strong> Napriek tomu riziko konfliktu pretrv\u00e1va. Ak by si venezuelsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da vyhodnotila, \u017ee ve\u013emoci, ako USA, s\u00fa pr\u00edli\u0161 zanepr\u00e1zdnen\u00e9 in\u00fdmi konfliktmi a Guayane by neposkytli vojensk\u00fa pomoc, mohla by znovu zv\u00e1\u017ei\u0165 agres\u00edvnej\u0161\u00ed postup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V Eur\u00f3pe potenci\u00e1lne do bud\u00facna hroz\u00ed vojensk\u00fd konflikt v pr\u00edpade, \u017ee by sa Rusko rozhodlo expandova\u0165 na \u00fakor Baltick\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov, pr\u00edpadne Po\u013eska, no dan\u00fd krok by bol extr\u00e9mne nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd, nako\u013eko Po\u013esko sa st\u00e1va novou vojenskou mocnos\u0165ou v Eur\u00f3pe a Rusko by potenci\u00e1lnou vojnou s eur\u00f3pskymi krajinami, mo\u017eno aj USA, ve\u013emi nez\u00edskali. Vzplan\u00fa\u0165 m\u00f4\u017ee kosovsk\u00fd konflikt a ve\u013emi nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd konflikt hroz\u00ed medzi Tureckom a Gr\u00e9ckom, nako\u013eko Erdoganov nacionalisticko neosmansk\u00fd re\u017eim m\u00e1 z\u00e1ujem o z\u00edskanie gr\u00e9ckych ostrovov v Egejskom mori, kv\u00f4li bohat\u00fdm lo\u017eisk\u00e1m na ropu a zemn\u00fd plyn v ich ekonomickej z\u00f3ne. Bol by to ozbrojen\u00fd stret medzi dvoma \u010dlenmi NATO, do ktor\u00e9ho by sa v pr\u00edpade mo\u017enosti zapojilo aj Rusko.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V Eur\u00f3pe do bud\u00facna potenci\u00e1lne hroz\u00ed vojensk\u00fd konflikt v pr\u00edpade, \u017ee by sa Rusko rozhodlo expandova\u0165 na \u00fakor Baltick\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov, pr\u00edpadne Po\u013eska. Tento krok by bol v\u0161ak extr\u00e9mne nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd, nako\u013eko Po\u013esko sa st\u00e1va novou vojenskou mocnos\u0165ou v Eur\u00f3pe a Rusko by potenci\u00e1lnou vojnou s eur\u00f3pskymi krajinami, mo\u017eno aj USA, ve\u013ea nez\u00edskalo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vzplan\u00fa\u0165 m\u00f4\u017ee kosovsk\u00fd konflikt a ve\u013emi nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd konflikt hroz\u00ed medzi Tureckom a Gr\u00e9ckom<\/strong>, nako\u013eko Erdoganov nacionalisticko-neosmansk\u00fd re\u017eim m\u00e1 z\u00e1ujem o z\u00edskanie gr\u00e9ckych ostrovov v Egejskom mori kv\u00f4li bohat\u00fdm lo\u017eisk\u00e1m ropy<\/strong> a zemn\u00e9ho plynu v ich ekonomickej z\u00f3ne. Bol by to ozbrojen\u00fd stret medzi dvoma \u010dlenmi NATO, do ktor\u00e9ho by sa v pr\u00edpade mo\u017enosti zapojilo aj Rusko.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00c1VER<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V s\u00fa\u010dasnosti svetov\u00e1 organiz\u00e1cia OSN zlyh\u00e1va v zabra\u0148ovan\u00ed glob\u00e1lnych konfliktov<\/strong>, podobne ako Liga n\u00e1rodov nedok\u00e1zala zabr\u00e1ni\u0165 vypuknutiu druhej svetovej vojny. Hroz\u00ed eskal\u00e1cia glob\u00e1lnych nap\u00e4t\u00ed bu\u010f prostredn\u00edctvom proxy vojen, alebo dokonca priamych stretov medzi USA a novovzrastaj\u00facimi mocnos\u0165ami. Najakt\u00edvnej\u0161\u00edmi akt\u00e9rmi v boji proti americk\u00e9mu svetov\u00e9mu poriadku s\u00fa predov\u0161etk\u00fdm skupina Rusko-Ir\u00e1n-\u010c\u00edna-K\u013dDR<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fdm rokom narastaj\u00fa svetov\u00e9 v\u00fddavky na zbrojenie,<\/strong> ni\u017e\u0161ie pon\u00fakame k nahliadnutiu historick\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddavky USA. Z celkovej situ\u00e1cie sa m\u00f4\u017ee nadob\u00fada\u0165 dojem, \u017ee sa cel\u00fd svet pripravuje na vojnu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Obr. \u010d. 1: Historick\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddavky USA<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Svet je dnes extr\u00e9mne prepojen\u00fd a hroz\u00ed prv\u00e1 skuto\u010dne glob\u00e1lna vojna<\/strong>, ktor\u00e1 by mohla zasiahnu\u0165 v\u0161etky kontinenty \u2013 \u010di u\u017e s priamym zapojen\u00edm svetov\u00fdch mocnost\u00ed, alebo prostredn\u00edctvom region\u00e1lnych proxy konfliktov. Pod\u013ea neziskovej skupiny Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<\/strong> vyd\u00e1vaj\u00facej od konca druhej svetovej vojny ohodnotenie svetovej situ\u00e1cie v symbolickom Doomsday Clock<\/a>, teda hodiny do katastrofy. Pod\u013ea Bulletin-u sme historicky najbli\u017e\u0161ie k riziku samozni\u010denia<\/strong> a ka\u017ed\u00fdm rokom sa tento symbolick\u00fd \u010das do katastrofy zni\u017euje.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n


Obr. \u010d. 2: Doomsday clock: Historick\u00e9 hodnotenia svetovej situ\u00e1cie<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n


V tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku sme na\u010drtli najnebezpe\u010dnej\u0161ie scen\u00e1re v\u00fdvoja v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch rokoch<\/strong>, s v\u00fdnimkou rizika celosvetovej nukle\u00e1rnej vojny, na ktor\u00fa je prakticky nemo\u017en\u00e9 sa pripravi\u0165. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Po tomto historickom zlome s vysokou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou vznikne nov\u00e1 svetov\u00e1 organiz\u00e1cia<\/strong>, alebo d\u00f4jde k v\u00fdraznej transform\u00e1cii OSN. Nevyhnutn\u00e9 zmeny pod\u013ea v\u0161etk\u00e9ho nastan\u00fa \u2013 ot\u00e1zkou zost\u00e1va, \u010di k nim dospejeme vojenskou cestou alebo mierov\u00fdm rie\u0161en\u00edm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hoci v\u00fdzvy a rizik\u00e1 s\u00fa\u010dasnej svetovej transform\u00e1cie s\u00fa z bezpe\u010dnostn\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska pre Slovensko men\u0161ie, tak by sme mali d\u00fafajuc v najlep\u0161ie, by\u0165 pripraven\u00ed na najhor\u0161ie scen\u00e1re<\/strong>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
Zobrazi\u0165 \u010dl\u00e1nok v PDF<\/a>Stiahnu\u0165<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V \u010dl\u00e1nku sa zaober\u00e1me s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdmi a potenci\u00e1lnymi rizikami ozbrojen\u00fdch konfliktov vo svete, ako aj ich pr\u00ed\u010dinami. Zvl\u00e1\u0161tnu pozornos\u0165 venujeme konfliktom, ktor\u00e9 by mohli prer\u00e1s\u0165 do jadrovej vojny. Cie\u013eom \u010dl\u00e1nku je dosiahnu\u0165 maxim\u00e1lnu objektivitu v r\u00e1mci jeho rozsahov\u00fdch obmedzen\u00ed. Nejde o hodnotenie o mor\u00e1lneho aspektu tejto problematiky, ale o zva\u017eovanie potenci\u00e1lnych hrozieb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7676,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7235","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRiziko jadrov\u00fdch vojen: Cesta k nov\u00e9mu svetov\u00e9mu poriadku - Veritas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.v3ritas.sk\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/riziko-jadrovych-vojen-cesta-k-novemu-svetovemu-poriadku\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sk_SK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Riziko jadrov\u00fdch vojen: Cesta k nov\u00e9mu svetov\u00e9mu poriadku - Veritas\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"V \u010dl\u00e1nku sa zaober\u00e1me s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdmi a potenci\u00e1lnymi rizikami ozbrojen\u00fdch konfliktov vo svete, ako aj ich pr\u00ed\u010dinami. 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